Election 2010: Teabaggin' the Ds & Rs

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

He won with high turn-out. Pissing off the base is not the way to try to repeat.

There is more than one way to win an election.

And as you have said repeatedly, the key factor is the economy. He made a deal this weak that he is betting will improve the economy.

Also, really, I know that this is naive, but getting reelected should not be his only concern.

[sgtclub]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

He won with high turn-out. Pissing off the base is not the way to try to repeat.

The independents make up a larger and larger percentage of the electorate each election cycle, and are always in play. Yes, high turn-out helped him, but independents breaking for him heavy helped even more. They broke the other way in 2010. Their vote is up for grabs in 2012. He needs to pay attention to his base, but not kowtow to it - he needs to pick certain issues that his base cares about and that are not offensive to the middle and back them stridently - he should even pick a fight or 2 with the Rs on these issues for street cred. He also needs to present himself as the only reasonable adult in the conversation - an arbitrator of what is right and good for the country, if you will. Sometime that will mean compromising with the Rs, but even then, he should get something out of the deal, to protect his left flank and appear reasonable to the middle.

[sgtclub]

Originally Posted by Adder

That said, I think they have very, very serious work to do in those 12 months, as they need to start addressing the mid to long term budget issues. I worry that they may not.

I actually think they will, or at least make an attempt. Kantor is going to propose something, and a lot of it will come out of the debt commissions proposals. There will be fights at the margins (mostly on spending reduction levels), but there will be an opportunity for compromise. A lot will depend on how much trust is built up in the first 6 months of the year, the Rs not overreaching, and the Ds not being obstinate. I think Obama will sign whatever gets to his desk on this issue.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

he needs to pick certain issues that his base cares about and that are not offensive to the middle and back them stridently

See, e.g., repeal of DADT and New START. These are small issues though. It's the tough budget choices that will have any influence (aside from the economy) in the next election cycle. And I'm not sure where the middle ground is there.

He also needs to present himself as the only reasonable adult in the conversation - an arbitrator of what is right and good for the country, if you will.

Dude. This is getting frightening. 2.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

The independents make up a larger and larger percentage of the electorate each election cycle, and are always in play. Yes, high turn-out helped him, but independents breaking for him heavy helped even more. They broke the other way in 2010. Their vote is up for grabs in 2012. He needs to pay attention to his base, but not kowtow to it - he needs to pick certain issues that his base cares about and that are not offensive to the middle and back them stridently - he should even pick a fight or 2 with the Rs on these issues for street cred. He also needs to present himself as the only reasonable adult in the conversation - an arbitrator of what is right and good for the country, if you will. Sometime that will mean compromising with the Rs, but even then, he should get something out of the deal, to protect his left flank and appear reasonable to the middle.

exactly. he won because of the vote of moderates like me (not me because a Mi. vote is meaningless). and the fact is that people like me tend to not be in love with either option- we voted against the Rs more than for him. He loses "my" vote, he'll be back in Chicago 1/13.

[sgtclub]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

exactly. he won because of the vote of moderates like me (not me because a Mi. vote is meaningless). and the fact is that people like me tend to not be in love with either option- we voted against the Rs more than for him. He loses "my" vote, he'll be back in Chicago 1/13.

I thought NotMe was Penske's sock?

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

I thought NotMe was Penske's sock?

dude, you're the one who crushed on "her." why you asking me?

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

The independents make up a larger and larger percentage of the electorate each election cycle, and are always in play. Yes, high turn-out helped him, but independents breaking for him heavy helped even more. They broke the other way in 2010. Their vote is up for grabs in 2012. He needs to pay attention to his base, but not kowtow to it - he needs to pick certain issues that his base cares about and that are not offensive to the middle and back them stridently - he should even pick a fight or 2 with the Rs on these issues for street cred. He also needs to present himself as the only reasonable adult in the conversation - an arbitrator of what is right and good for the country, if you will. Sometime that will mean compromising with the Rs, but even then, he should get something out of the deal, to protect his left flank and appear reasonable to the middle.

This is one where everyone is right. He had about 8 ways to win the last election and won 6 of them. High turn-out helped, independents in swing states helped, a solid base helped. That high turn-out wasn't just liberals, either.

He could have the same 8 ways to win the next election, or maybe just four. He has to land at least one.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

This is one where everyone is right. He had about 8 ways to win the last election and won 6 of them. High turn-out helped, independents in swing states helped, a solid base helped. That high turn-out wasn't just liberals, either.

He could have the same 8 ways to win the next election, or maybe just four. He has to land at least one.

In the end, though, I think playing for the Hank-like "independents" might be safer than playing of the progressive dreamers who think we could just be Denmark if we tried.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

This is one where everyone is right. He had about 8 ways to win the last election and won 6 of them. High turn-out helped, independents in swing states helped, a solid base helped. That high turn-out wasn't just liberals, either.

He could have the same 8 ways to win the next election, or maybe just four. He has to land at least one.

If only people who voted last month had voted two years ago, John McCain (yes, that jerk) would be be President.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

In the end, though, I think playing for the Hank-like "independents" might be safer than playing of the progressive dreamers who think we could just be Denmark if we tried.

He could have them wrapped around his little finger if he tried. But not like this:

Team Obama may also be insufficiently attentive to the left, which has erupted over the tax-cut deal. The Friday after the midterms, a senior administration official convened a meeting with representatives of several dozen prominent progressive organizations. When the meeting began at 9 a.m., the official announced the discussion would have to be quick as the White House needed the room by ten o’clock. “The White House is having a meeting with all its important allies, and the initial message is, ‘We couldn’t get a room for more than an hour,’ ” says one participant. “You’ve got to be shitting me.”

[sgtclub]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

If only people who voted last month had voted two years ago, John McCain (yes, that jerk) would be be President.

They did vote. They just voted for BO.

[Hank Chinaski]

so monday I'm going to Savannah. I'm sick of running in the low 20s, it'll be a nice break right?

just checked the weather: highs about 42, lows 14. NWTF? I know the global warming crowd has changed to "climate change" digging in their nails, but can one of you explain it me again?

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

They did vote. They just voted to BO.

I think you're smart, except for one thing you do that makes me think you're dumb. you know what the one thing is?

hint: I'm quoting an example of it.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

If only people who voted last month had voted two years ago, John McCain (yes, that jerk) would be be President.

He should be thankful that all those people that elected W moved out of the country before 2008, I suppose.

Hank (aggressively ignorant) Chinaski